Yesterday I saw Bill James on 60 minutes. I saw him a few years ago at a SABR convention. His presentation was filled to the brim with convention attendees. It was baseballs version of the sermon on the mount. All that was missing was a box of self filling crackerjack. I had looked at the presentation schedule long before and knew he was going to speak. So I went a picked up a first edition of his Historical Baseball Abstract. After his presentation I had him sign the book. Kinda like my own miracle.
Anyway, I think Bill James is great and most the time way over my head on his statistical analysis. However, I have one disagreement with him. He says clutch hitting doesn’t exist. This has been a debate in SABR journals for years now with folks going back and forth. As an athlete I know all people focus more or perform better at certain points in competition. This may not sound like much but I know in high school cross country I was terrible in the clutch. Yet I was the number one runner on the team. I know that I choked in half the league meets and the state championship. I thought too much about it and blew it. At non league meets I felt no pressure and did great. Now when I went to college I played rugby and nothing was expected of me. Because nothing was expected of me I felt I did pretty good at all games and especially against Norte Dame. I thought I had a really good game. I was focused more on that game and still recall that game more so then any other game I played.
Here is another story. I had a season ticket package to Fenway park in the early 90’s. I always felt that if the game was on the line I would want Dwight Evans to be at the plate, not batting champ Wade Boggs. Why did I think this? Bill James will tell you I felt this for no reason other then my own preference of a hunch. But I think it was due to months watching the two so that my head was telling me logically what I was not thinking in terms of math.
What does this tell us so far? Nothing. It is pure anecdote. However, these things tell me that clutch play exists.
So how do you grade it? How can you put a number to it or rank on it? I don’t know how to do it for pitchers but for hitters I think it is simple. In many of the SABR journal arguments the problem everyone runs into is that the number of clutch situations is so limited that the sample size is not significant. So how do you increase the sample size? Change your definition. You don’t have to have the game on the line. Open it up to having runners on base in front of you and less then two outs. What are the possible outcomes?
1. You can get drive the runner in and get an RBI.
2. You can strike out or pop up or ground out or even walk and nothing happens to the runner. In betting terms, a push.
3. You can ground into a double play. Absolutely the worst thing possible. Not only are you out but you took out the base runner as well.
So take the number of times player grounds into a double play and divide that by their RBI’s. I went through and ranked many of the HOFers and included Boggs and Evens and here is what I got..
Low and behold! You get a lot of the guys everyone always calls great hitters like Mantle and Bonds and Morgan and Stargell and Schmidt at the top. Guys who do not have the reputations of great players are towards the bottom like Mazeroski, Aparicio, and……Boggs. Where is Dwight Evans? He has a ratio of .164 to Boggs .233.
How about last years AL RBI leaders?
Where do you think they rank?
Monday, May 11, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Dave Bergman's shoes
A few years ago I saw someone selling a pair of Dave Bergman’s shoes on Ebay. The seller wanted $7 for the minimum bid. I looked at the shoes and looked at all the photos I could find of Dave Bergman and found that the shoes did match what I saw Dave Bergman wearing, Mizuno. I thought for $7 even if they were not legit I was not out that much money and they would still look cool even if they weren’t his. So I bid and won them for the minimum.
I went and picked the shoes up from the seller who was local. I talked to him and asked him the story behind the shoes. He said he had worked the summer for the local school district. The district had several boxes of Dave Bergman’s shoes that he had donated to the school. However, they were now throwing them out as metal spikes were no longer allowed in high school. Supposedly they told the seller that he could take them if he wanted as otherwise they were going in the trash. This sounded legit to me as I knew that Dave Bergman lived in the area.
The seller then told me he had seven pairs of the shoes. He was disappointed that no one else bid and offered them all to me for $7 a pair. He had pairs of both home black and white, and away black and orange. Most of them were still in boxes. I collect Tigers things as a Tiger fan and I knew a few others who I thought would like the shoes as well. So I agreed and took all the shoes home with me.
Very shortly after this Dave Bergman was signing at a card show. I was giving pairs of both home and away shoes to my brother and also pairs of home and away to a writer friend of mine. My brother joined me in going to the card show to get the shoes signed. I got in line to get a bat and cap of Dave Bergman’s that I have and the shoes signed. My bother looked around the show a bit before getting in line a few people behind me.
When it got to my turn I put the shoes out in front of Mr. Bergman. He looked at them and asked me where I got them. I told him the story. He was not happy. He said “these were supposed to be used by the boys!” He put the pen up the shoe and then paused and said “I shouldn’t even sign these.” Then he put the pen up to the shoe again and again paused and said “I’m going to call the school and find out what they are doing.” Then he put the pen up to the shoe said “I’ll sign them but I’m not signing any other shoes ever again after these!”
Now I may not know everything about my brother I do know that he would be a bit disappointed if I got my shoes signed and he didn’t get his signed. I figured I should do something. So I brilliantly sprang into action and said “…uhhh,….my brother is behind me in line and …he has some shoes too….”
My brilliance and articulation was too much for Mr. Bergman. He caved and said “well his will be the last shoes I ever sign!” I apologized and gathered all my items and stepped aside and waited for my brother feeling very sheepish.
As a collector I have always tried to be very polite to the players as I feel as fans we are more often then not interfering with their personal lives. No matter how unobtrusive we try to be we fans are still invading their privacy or their work space. Only at card signings do I feel a player is now obligated to be polite to us fans.
But clearly I had crossed a line by having shoes that he intended to give to under privileged kids. This really made me feel more then just an intruder. I felt like thief. So I wrote a letter to Mr. Bergman. I wrote:
Dear Mr. Bergman,
I am the Tiger fan who had you sign the shoes at this past weekends’ show. I would like to again apologize for obviously for obviously surprising you with the shoes. After thinking about it I feel as if they are stolen property and the possessor of stolen property is still not the owner. I believe the shoes are obviously more yours than mine.
I would not feel comfortable offering the shoes that have already been spoken for by my friends. I don’t think it is fair that I take back what has already gone into their collections. However, I would like to offer you the shoes that I had intended to keep for myself. I would send them to you and you could either give them to a charity for auction or to your friends or keep them for yourself. All I would ask in return is that if you give them to a charity for auction please let me know as I would like to try and buy them back for my own collection.
Please let me know and I will send them to you right away.
Sincerely,
Chuck
A few days later I received the following letter:
Dear Chuck,
Thanks so much for caring! I was a little surprised by seeing the shoes, but after you explained I didn’t have problem with what took place. I failed to realize that high school players couldn’t wear spikes.
Please feel free to keep the shoes that rightfully belong to you. It is quality people like you that allows me to keep the faith in the religious memorabilia collectors!
Dave Bergman
So instead of loosing the shoes I now have a cool story and a letter of authenticity signed by Mr. Bergman himself!!
I went and picked the shoes up from the seller who was local. I talked to him and asked him the story behind the shoes. He said he had worked the summer for the local school district. The district had several boxes of Dave Bergman’s shoes that he had donated to the school. However, they were now throwing them out as metal spikes were no longer allowed in high school. Supposedly they told the seller that he could take them if he wanted as otherwise they were going in the trash. This sounded legit to me as I knew that Dave Bergman lived in the area.
The seller then told me he had seven pairs of the shoes. He was disappointed that no one else bid and offered them all to me for $7 a pair. He had pairs of both home black and white, and away black and orange. Most of them were still in boxes. I collect Tigers things as a Tiger fan and I knew a few others who I thought would like the shoes as well. So I agreed and took all the shoes home with me.
Very shortly after this Dave Bergman was signing at a card show. I was giving pairs of both home and away shoes to my brother and also pairs of home and away to a writer friend of mine. My brother joined me in going to the card show to get the shoes signed. I got in line to get a bat and cap of Dave Bergman’s that I have and the shoes signed. My bother looked around the show a bit before getting in line a few people behind me.
When it got to my turn I put the shoes out in front of Mr. Bergman. He looked at them and asked me where I got them. I told him the story. He was not happy. He said “these were supposed to be used by the boys!” He put the pen up the shoe and then paused and said “I shouldn’t even sign these.” Then he put the pen up to the shoe again and again paused and said “I’m going to call the school and find out what they are doing.” Then he put the pen up to the shoe said “I’ll sign them but I’m not signing any other shoes ever again after these!”
Now I may not know everything about my brother I do know that he would be a bit disappointed if I got my shoes signed and he didn’t get his signed. I figured I should do something. So I brilliantly sprang into action and said “…uhhh,….my brother is behind me in line and …he has some shoes too….”
My brilliance and articulation was too much for Mr. Bergman. He caved and said “well his will be the last shoes I ever sign!” I apologized and gathered all my items and stepped aside and waited for my brother feeling very sheepish.
As a collector I have always tried to be very polite to the players as I feel as fans we are more often then not interfering with their personal lives. No matter how unobtrusive we try to be we fans are still invading their privacy or their work space. Only at card signings do I feel a player is now obligated to be polite to us fans.
But clearly I had crossed a line by having shoes that he intended to give to under privileged kids. This really made me feel more then just an intruder. I felt like thief. So I wrote a letter to Mr. Bergman. I wrote:
Dear Mr. Bergman,
I am the Tiger fan who had you sign the shoes at this past weekends’ show. I would like to again apologize for obviously for obviously surprising you with the shoes. After thinking about it I feel as if they are stolen property and the possessor of stolen property is still not the owner. I believe the shoes are obviously more yours than mine.
I would not feel comfortable offering the shoes that have already been spoken for by my friends. I don’t think it is fair that I take back what has already gone into their collections. However, I would like to offer you the shoes that I had intended to keep for myself. I would send them to you and you could either give them to a charity for auction or to your friends or keep them for yourself. All I would ask in return is that if you give them to a charity for auction please let me know as I would like to try and buy them back for my own collection.
Please let me know and I will send them to you right away.
Sincerely,
Chuck
A few days later I received the following letter:
Dear Chuck,
Thanks so much for caring! I was a little surprised by seeing the shoes, but after you explained I didn’t have problem with what took place. I failed to realize that high school players couldn’t wear spikes.
Please feel free to keep the shoes that rightfully belong to you. It is quality people like you that allows me to keep the faith in the religious memorabilia collectors!
Dave Bergman
So instead of loosing the shoes I now have a cool story and a letter of authenticity signed by Mr. Bergman himself!!
Phil Masi has been released from his entombment.
I did it. I bought my first professionally graded card for my collection. It was #19 Phil Masi from the 1951 Topps blue back set. It was vg-ex 4. It is a nice looking card. It has a mild crease in it but that is it. I didn’t think cards in that range would have a crease but that is ok. It must be ok, the graders said so. It is still a nice card and I will keep it as I tinker with the set. Phil was the starting catcher for the White Sox that year. He caught 85 games for the southsiders in 1951. It was at the twilight of his career. Phil was born in Chicago so I would think he was happy to be winding down his career back home. He would only appear in 30 more games for the Sox in 1952 and then his major league playing career would be over. It had been a couple years since his last All-Star appearance. Phil was selected to the squad 4 years in a row from 1945-48 while playing for the Braves. Phil died in Mt. Prospect IL in 1990. I didn’t think Phil deserved to be slabbed. He deserved better. So I released Phil from his plastic entombment. I think I heard a sigh when I took him out. Phil’s birthday is January 6. Happy birthday Phil.
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